This snippet is from 标准教程HSK4上 chapter 7 (my translation):
Little Li: Your nose is [how] bleeding? Quickly get a tissue and wipe [it].
Little Lin: I am still not accustomed to the north's climate, [my] estimate is the weather is too dry. Today the weather is not very cold, how come you wear so much?
I don't understand what caused 小林's nose to bleed. The logic seems to be something like this:
- 小林 is now in the north [of China].
- 小林 is not accustomed to the north's climate.
- 小林 estimated the weather is "too dry" [估计是天气太干], but this was incorrect.
- 小林's nose is bleeding.
I'm going wrong somewhere here.
Question: Why is 小林's nose bleeding?
It seems like 小林 has predicted the north's weather is drier than it actually is. But I would expect an underestimation of the dryness to lead to 小林's nose bleeding, not an overestimation.