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Is it the "change of state" sentence-end particle?
If so, can you say this sentence without it?
And if not, how do you convey the difference between:
(She already knows, the situation hasn't changed) vs. (This is news, we had plans, but it turns out it won't work)
Yes. It is.
Yes, you can say the sentence without "了", but the two sentences mean differently.
请告诉她我不能跟她去看电影了 - Please tell her that I can't go with her to the movie now.
请告诉她我不能跟她去看电影 - Please tell her that I can't go with her to the movie.
While the first sentence indicates "I promised her before to go to the movie with her later, but now the situation has changed."; the second indicates that you plain refuse, or are reluctant, to go with her to a movie. It is likely you will hurt her feeling by telling her this way.
Case a. Both of you agreed to meet, but later turns out that you can't make it, you shall say: "請告訴她我今晚不䏻去了".
Case b. She invited you to meet; you responded with "再說吧". For this case, you can say
i) to a person you like: "請告訴她我今晚不䏻去了". Here, "了" soften the tune of the negative answer, and implies "sorry, I thought there is a chance I can go, but now I really can't".
ii) to a person you don't care: "(請)告訴她我今晚不䏻去". - I didn't promise you anything, so be it.
请告诉她我不能跟她去看电影了：Please tell her I can't go to the movies with her because I'm in a hurry this time, but welcome to the next date.
请告诉她我不能跟她去看电影：Please tell her it's impossible for me to go to the movies with her and stop trying to date me.
10:00 we have agreed to meet later, 15:00 I realise we can't meet, 17:00 "Please tell her we can't meet": 请代我向她致歉，我事去不了了，下次再约吧。To go back on an already decided date, we usually apologize and welcome another date, lest the other person think we have a problem with her.
10:00 AM, we discuss meeting alter but don't make any firm decision, 15:00 I realise we can't meet, 17:00 "Please tell her we can't met": 请替我告诉她，我有事去不了了，约会取消吧。There is no need to apologize because the date has not yet been decided, just articulate your decision.
请告诉她我不能跟她去看电影了. Yes, "了" means "change of state". I told her earlier that I would go with her. Now something else interrupted my plan. “不能...了” indicates that I am in a passive position.
请告诉她我不能跟她去看电影. Without “了”, more likely, I give her an answer (not a change). “不能...” indicates that I am unable to do that. It may also indicate that I am in a passive position.
Without “了”, it is not necessarily a negative statement.
If you really want to indicate "do not date me", you can say 请告诉她我不想跟她去看电影, or more seriously, 请告诉她我不会跟她去看电影。请告诉她我才不会跟她去看电影呢。
